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A decade after the UK embarked on a hasty referendum that divided the nation and caused chaos, a warning is issued from beyond the Irish Sea: it could happen again.

Policymakers and voters drifted into Brexit and the same may happen with a referendum on a unified Ireland, triggering upheavals for which no one is prepared.

That is the message from two respected commentators from either side of the Irish border who have joined forces to scrutinise the pros and cons of Northern Ireland departing the UK to create a different country with the Republic of Ireland.

Administrative Institutions Ill-Equipped

Fintan O’Toole and The Northern Ireland editor, have found that the administrative systems in Ireland and Britain are gravely ill-prepared for a potentially fraught and monumental referendum.

"The lesson of Brexit has gone unabsorbed, which is that events can come out of the blue and can gain traction rapidly," the commentator said. "It is my view that the governmental framework of our region remains highly fragile."

New Title Seeks to Encourage Dialogue

The pair have studied the political, economic and cultural arguments for any constitutional change in a book, For and Against a United Ireland, released by the Dublin-based Royal Irish Academy.

They aim to stir debate on the matter with a roadshow of public talks that will bring them to Westminster soon.

"What concerns all parties, or ought to concern every person, is the Brexit referendum of 2016," commented the analyst.

"We must avoid a national vote on a yes-no, vague proposition whose results have not been spelled out because then you land with an highly polarised community where the losing side are not reconciled to losing and the those successful are uncertain precisely what it is that they have gained."

Constitutional Provision

Under the peace accord, the Northern Ireland secretary of state is obliged to schedule a public vote on Irish unity if it seems probable that a majority would approve.

Sinn Féin and other pro-unification groups say that moment is looming, and a group called Ireland’s Future has garnered backing, but authorities in Dublin and London and unionists minimise the likelihood, leaving it unclear whether or when there could be a national vote.

Absence of Informed Dialogue

Partisan language supporting and opposing unity has hidden the shortage of serious debate, said the journalist.

"People tend to be supportive or opposed the idea but the detailed consideration which could extend past that to realise it is mostly absent. Much has occurred in scholarly circles but scarcely any politicians or advocates are willing to participate with the fundamentals. To illustrate, what sort of state might be preferred? Centralised? Federal?"

Volume's Strategy

In the book, neither author endorses unification or the current situation. Both writes two essays that seek impartiality in detailing the rationale for a unified Ireland and the case opposing it, assembling economic and societal data, historical precedents and constitutional models.

Discussions range over identity markers, taxes, medical care, retirement funds, public liabilities and the danger of loyalist violence. The aim is to educate and encourage discussion.

"Considerable attention exists in the issue but there hasn't quite been a discussion," commented the writer. "Discussion indicates an acceptance of the concept that there could be reasonable perspectives on both sides."

Parallel Votes

A public vote in Northern Ireland would also trigger one in the Republic of Ireland, where citizens say they support unification but refuse paying higher taxes or adopting a different emblem to recognise unionists' UK heritage.

"Authorities in Dublin does need to determine what the plan from pro-unification movements is other than just stating: 'We seek a united Ireland and we love you'," remarked O’Toole.

Likelihood of Public Vote

The journalist thinks a referendum in his lifetime is possible and that it might occur abruptly. "There might be just a irresponsible or a ill-advised or a incompetent official who states: 'Let us proceed and get it out of the way.'"

Both nationalists and unionists have plausible, justified arguments, he commented. "One side will succeed here and the other side will in the end be defeated but both parties has got something to acquire from the opposing arguments."

Appeal for Broader Discussion

Westminster needed to join the discussion, stated O’Toole. "This concerns the United Kingdom. It's a British question equally as it is an Irish question."